China’s rapidly aging population could wipe out the country’s low cost labour advantage within the next few decades and stifle the economic growth, according to the Chinese state media. The China daily, quoting a report by the China National Committee on aging, said that sometime between 2030 and 2050, there will be only two workers for every retiree-down from the current ratio of six workers to one retiree. While China’s population is growing, the number of elderly people is increasing at a quicker pace. According to the report, China had 149 million people over the age of 60 last year. That is expected to grow to 248 million in 2020 and 437 million in 2050. China now has a population of 1.3 billion. “With fewer people of working age and more pressure on supporting the elderly, the economy will suffer if productivity sees no major progress”, the deputy director, Yan Qingchun of the committee on aging was quoted as saying. Economic reforms over the past three decades have turned China into the world’s factory floor on the back of cheap labour costs. But pressure as generated from reforms has also caused the communist welfare system to disintegrate, with lay-offs from state owned enterprises and a lack of social safety nets. Yan was quoted as saying that China “might encounter the heaviest burden, especially after 2030”, when there could be an end to economic growth fueled by the growing number of people of working age.
Now let us examine the Indian situation. As per census 2001, the number of old persons in India in 2001 was 70.6 million (6.9%) which was projected to be 83.5 million in 2006(7.5%). As per the projection the percentage of older persons will be 94.8 million in 2011 (8.3%), 118 million in 2016 (9.3%), 143.7 million in 2021 (10.7%) and 173.1 million in 2026 (12.4%).
In Japan the percentage of Japan’s population over the age of 65 had surpassed 21.6% adding that the problems of an aging society, coupled with a declining birth rate were thus of great concern. Regarding the family issues-the family plays an important role in shaping society, and Japan is committed to addressing a growth difficulty of balancing family and work-life, a weakening of bonds within the family and child abuse.
In Brazil, the population, like others in the Latin American and Caribbean region, was aging at an accelerated rate. Currently, there are more than 9 million people aged 60 and over in Brazil and soon it will have the sisth largest population of older people in the world.
In the US, the older population i.e. persons aged 65 years and above is 37.3 million in 2006 according to the latest data. They represent 12.4% of the US population, about one in every eight Americans. By 2030, there will be about 71.5 million older persons, more than twice their numbers in 2000. People over 65 represented 12.4% of the population in the year 2000 but are expected to grow to be 20% of the total population by 2030.
